2Q26 EBITDA beats, FCF inflection in sight

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 EBITDA beats, FCF inflection in sight

Update

July 28, 2026 10:22 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFirst Quantum Minerals Ltd | North America Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EBITDA beats, FCF Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-0427

Carlos De Alba

Equity Analystinflection in sight Carlos.De.Alba@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4927

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Alain Gabriel, CFA

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Largely unchanged

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Ferdinand Huber

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Adahna Ekoku

Key Takeaways Equity Analyst

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

2Q26 EBITDA was 6% above company consensus on higher production/realised

pricing First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO, FM CT)

Top Pick

Net debt was sightly higher vs consensus and MSe on working capital/cash taxes Metals & Mining | Canada

Copper/gold hedges roll off, offering full leverage to metal prices and pointing to Stock Rating Overweight

positive spot FCF (pre NWC) from Q3 Industry View In-Line

Price target C$45.20

FY guidance unchanged; company reiterated potential US$0.25/lb MtM impact on Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) C$37.51

52-Week Range C$46.36-22.16

C1 costs Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$22,156

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$6,014

We expect the shares to modestly outperform on the EBITDA beat; Top Pick EV, curr (mn)* US$27,272

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

2Q26 EBITDA beat, net debt slightly higher: Adjusted EBITDA of US$400mn was

6% above Visible Alpha consensus.