European Gas Risks are taking shape

Research evidence excerpt

European Gas Risks are taking shape

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European Gas Equities

Europe including UKRisks are taking shape

Energy

Nayoung Kim

Renewed tensions in the Gulf lift gas prices Analyst

Gulf tensions are re-escalating, and gas is repricing, with TTF moving into the low €60s/ nayoung.kim@ubs.com

MWh and JKM into the low $20s/mmBtu. So far, the market absorbed Qatari disruptions +44-20-7568 4010

through lower EU LNG imports and incremental US supply, but that cushion is thinning. Henri Patricot, CFA

Heatwaves are the near-term catalyst, but the bigger risk is winter. Europe is already past Analyst

the midpoint of injection season and inventories remain low. Reported extensions to henri.patricot@ubs.com

Qatari LNG force majeure through mid-October reinforce that risk (link). With limited +33-14-888 3033

near-term LNG additions from both existing and new terminals, the backdrop remains Joshua Stone

supportive for prices. We remain cautious amid heightened uncertainty around Hormuz Analyst

and, for now, assume normalisation in 3Q, with 3Q/4Q TTF averaging €50/MWh. joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

Time is running out for storage; winter starts at 75% and ends at 25% Josh Silverstein

The EU’s 90% target remains in place, but weak enforcement means economics are Analyst

driving injections, while poor seasonal spreads continue to cap LNG imports. EU gas josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

storage stood at 55% as of 23 July, well below last year’s 65% and the seasonal average

of 70%. We now forecast EU storage at 75% by end-October 2026, down from 77% Tom Allen

previously, above the 72% implied by the current injection pace but well below the five- Analyst

year average of 90%.