Tractor Supply Company: Back in the Saddle?

Research evidence excerpt

Tractor Supply Company: Back in the Saddle?

% ch Cons.

continued investments in value. As a result, the company’s gross margin is likely to be Q1 0.31 0.31 0 0.31

under pressure in the back half of the year. That said, if TSCO can demonstrate Q2 0.83 0.81 -3 0.82

continued progress in pet and sustain momentum within its CUE categories, we believe Q3E 0.46 0.41 -11 0.47

the market will increasingly look through near-term margin pressure and focus on the Q4E 0.40 0.37 -6 0.44

company's earnings recovery potential in 2027. 12/26E 2.00 1.90 -5 2.05

12/27E 2.10 1.95 -7 2.21

12/28E 2.25 2.10 -7 2.47

Looking ahead to 2027, an earnings recovery appears achievable, although the

magnitude remains subject to debate. Assuming TSCO achieves its revised 2026 Michael Lasser

guidance, several headwinds currently weighing on profitability should begin to Analyst

michael.lasser@ubs.com

moderate. The company will cycle past distribution center start-up costs, recent

+1-212-713 2440

investments in pet and value, and should begin to benefit from supply chain efficiencies

associated with its new distribution center. In addition, 2026 gross margin is being Sachin Verma

impacted by volatile tariff refund timing, elevated freight costs, and tactical pricing Associate Analyst

sachin.verma@ubs.com

investments.

+1-212-713 3492

Mark Carden

However, it would be overly simplistic to assume all of these pressures reverse

Analyst

automatically in 2027. Management is using a portion of tariff refunds to fund value mark.carden@ubs.com

investments, and if consumers remain value-focused or competition intensifies, TSCO +1-212-713 3218

may choose to maintain a more aggressive pricing posture. In that scenario, some of the

temporary margin support benefiting 2026 may not translate into earnings upside next