Deckers Outdoor Corp: Reiterate Buy Rating Post a Very Solid 1Q Report

Research evidence excerpt

Deckers Outdoor Corp: Reiterate Buy Rating Post a Very Solid 1Q Report

2. DECK's 1Q27 gross margin beat and strong inventory control show the company is Q1 0.89 0.95 7 0.87

growing in a very healthy way. DECK beat the Street's 1Q27 gross margin forecast Q2E 1.88 1.78 -5 1.90

by ~200 bps. Plus, its 1Q27 ending inventory declined 5% y/y even though the Q3E 3.75 3.75 0 3.67

Q4E 1.03 1.06 3 1.05

company is guiding sales to increase ~5% in 2Q27. We believe the market

03/27E 7.55 7.55 -0 7.48

underappreciates the value of DECK driving higher gross margin and controlling

03/28E 8.40 8.40 -0 8.29

inventory. Few would argue increasing promotions and losing control of inventory 03/29E 9.70 9.70 0 9.40

significantly damages a brand. DECK is doing the opposite with its brands and we

believe this will sustain high growth rates over a much longer period of time than Jay Sole

what we believe the stock price assumes today. Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

Hoka sales growth rate acceleration should be a positive catalyst: +1-212-713 3559

The stock price may lag in the near-term for two reasons. First, some may perceive Mauricio Serna, CFA

DECK's 2Q27 guidance as slightly underwhelming. Second, we believe DECK's guidance Analyst

assumes Hoka's sales growth rate accelerates over the course of the year and some may mauricio.serna@ubs.com

+1-212-713 9028be skeptical Hoka can achieve this. We see an attractive opportunity whether the stock

drops or not. It is important to note DECK's quarterly EPS has beaten consensus over Natalie Koltermann

95% of the time since 2021. In addition, the 2nd half-weighted Hoka sales guide is Associate Analyst

simply a result of a shift in timing around when DECK will deliver Hoka product to its natalie.koltermann@ubs.com