Growth Durability Likely to Drive the Discussion

Research evidence excerpt

Growth Durability Likely to Drive the Discussion

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

AppFolio Inc Equities

United StatesGrowth Durability Likely to Drive the Discussion

Software

12-month rating Buy

2QF26 Earnings Summary

While 19% Y/Y 2QF26 total revs growth was likely good enough and the 22% Y/Y 12m price target US$200.00

Services revs growth was strong against a tougher comp (key pillar to the bull case),

investor focus is likely to center on the Subs revs growth decel to 14% Y/Y (from 18% in

Price (23 Jul 2026) US$163.95

1Q) and only a modest FY26 revs growth outlook increase to 18% Y/Y (from 17.5%).

Concerns may be amplified by APPF’s commentary that the Subs slowdown reflected RIC: APPF.O BBG: APPF US

both moderating existing customer unit expansions and discounting on new unit

Trading data and key metrics

licenses to facilitate migrations off competitors. Also, we estimate total revs growth to

52-wk range US$321.25-143.34

slow further to 16-17% Y/Y in 4QF26 due to a difficult comp against one-time Other

revenue in 4QF25. That said, we sensed the moderation to mid-teens growth is expected Market cap. US$5.81b

to be temporary given the comp dynamic, with FY27 revs growth still viewed as capable Shares o/s 35.5m (COM)

of remaining in the high-teens. We maintain our ~17% Y/Y FY27 revs growth estimate Free float 95%

and therefore our Buy rating, though we acknowledge the stock may be stuck near term Avg. daily volume ('000) 381

as we and investors seek proof points that validate whether current softness is transitory Avg. daily value (m) US$62.8

or indicative of a sustained slowdown. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$0.65b

P/BV (12/26E) 9.0x

Key Takes From Our Call Back Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM

Unpacking Subs Revs Growth Decel: 2QF26 subs revs did face a modestly