Somnigroup International Inc: Firing Up The Numbers

Research evidence excerpt

Somnigroup International Inc: Firing Up The Numbers

uidance. First, we estimate SGI’s pricing actions can drive +1pp or

12/26E

more of top-line growth in 2H’26 alone. This should also help mitigate the impact of From To % ch Cons.

input and transportation cost pressures. While these cost pressures remain present, we Q1 0.59 0.59 0 0.59

don't think they got incrementally worse. From there, our checks indicate that industry Q2E 0.57 0.59 3 0.57

demand has been solid, with many retailers posting positive SSS during the key Q3E 1.14 1.14 0 1.13

Memorial Day weekend and 2Q at large. This momentum should be reflected in Q4E 0.85 0.85 0 0.86

improving performance in SGI’s “other-other” North America wholesale segment and 12/26E 3.15 3.17 1 3.15

Mattress Firm all else equal. Next, the co. will have fully lapped the sales drag from the 12/27E 4.00 4.00 -0 3.90

divestiture of certain Mattress Firm and Sleep Outfitter stores in 3Q and 4Q. Further, 12/28E 5.15 5.15 0 4.88

product launches in SGI’s Stearns and Foster brand should provide some newness in the

Dan Silverstein

product assortment. Last but not least, the co. is likely to continue to lean into national Analyst

advertising investment with the power of a $700m+ ad budget this year. Conversely, the daniel.silverstein@ubs.com

competitive set remains capital constrained, evidenced by SNBR's and several other +1-212-713 2459

industry bankruptcies year-to-date (article here).

Michael Lasser

Analyst

From there, we expect positive datapoints to reinforce the long-term EPS michael.lasser@ubs.com

growth story... +1-212-713 2440

The concerns laid out above by the bearish camp aren’t structural in nature, in our view. Mark Carden

So, as near-term estimates stabilize, we think the market will shift its attention back to Analyst