N.A. Chems & Pkg The Daily Inspector

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg The Daily Inspector

Notably, the scanner data remain at odds with recent beverage can company

commentary. Most recently, Crown highlighted approximately 5% volume growth

in North America during the quarter and continues to expect growth for the

remainder of the year, albeit at a more moderate pace. Importantly, the company

estimated the broader North American beverage can market grew approximately

3.5% in 2Q.

June update of Industrials dashboard for U.S., China & Europe

We update monthly trends across a series of industrial indicators impacting end markets

in the U.S., China & Europe (Figure 4). Lower oil prices in June were positive for demand

but we expect the recent increase in oil to create uncertainty and dampen demand in the

near-term. Manufacturing PMIs for the U.S and Europe remained in expansion in June

while China moved slightly above a neutral reading. We continue to expect chemical

operating rates in the U.S. and Europe to remain elevated to offset the global shortfall in

chemical production in the Middle East and Asia from the lack of feedstock and the

closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In aggregate across our coverage (excl. Ag firms), we estimate that broad industrial-

linked end markets are ~50-60% of end product demand on average, with the

remainder primarily serving consumer/housing related end markets. Our heat map

(Figure 5) highlights Y/Y trends.

U.S. indicators remain positive in June

Manufacturing PMI and New Orders remained solidly in expansion territory in June

though dipped slightly M/M. Industrial production improved slightly M/M and remains

up Y/Y. Retail and Auto Sales remain up MSD% Y/Y in June. Consumer Confidence

improved M/M but remains negative Y/Y which is unsurprising given energy price and

tariff uncertainty.