European Refining: A strong quarter before an even stronger one - 2Q26 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

European Refining: A strong quarter before an even stronger one - 2Q26 Preview

Global Research

27 July 2026ab

European Refining Equities

Europe including UKA strong quarter before an even stronger one -

2Q26 Preview Oil Companies, Secondary

Anna Kishmariya

Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

2Q was far from ordinary for CEEMEA refiners. Volatility in the quarter was +44-20-7568 7999

extreme (with share-price swings exceeding 20%), though names under

Henri Patricot, CFA

coverage ended 2Q on average below where they started amid SoH reopening

trade in 2H June. The trend reversed sharply in July as product-market henri.patricot@ubs.com

disruptions reignited momentum. As highlighted in our global refining note, +33-14-888 3033

we expect margins to compress, although timing remains uncertain and not all

Joshua Stone

upside risks are exhausted. Given the strong starting point, 3Q in our view is on

track to be another record quarter. We update our margins assumptions and joshua.stone@ubs.com

raise price targets by an average of 10% across coverage. Post July sector rally +44-20-7901 5588

we see upside to our PT for MOL where we reiterate our Buy rating, we

Leo Currie

maintain Neutral ratings for the others. Associate Analyst

leo.currie@ubs.com

2Q - strong across the board +44-20-7567 0642

With refining margins added $7/bbl in 2Q, we forecast strong 2Q26E EBITDA of ~US

$6.0bn for EEMEA refiners, up ~15% q/q. Tupras should deliver the strongest

sequential improvement, and we expect EBITDA to triple q/q to ~$860m, supported by

the lagged benefit from jet margins highs of March and trading gains. MOL and Motor

Oil should also post strong results. We expect MOL's EBITDA to rise 54% q/q as the

restart of Russian crude supplies in April allowed the group to start benefit from