Neste: A record and some maintenance - 2Q26 Review

Research evidence excerpt

Neste: A record and some maintenance - 2Q26 Review

Global Research

27 July 2026ab

Neste Equities

FinlandA record and some maintenance - 2Q26 Review

Oil Companies, Secondary

12-month rating Buy *

Record quarter and still an attractive outlook

We reiterate our Buy rating and €38 price target post 2Q26 results. We continue to 12m price target €38.00

expect Neste to surprise positively in 2H26 and 2027, despite heavy maintenance, given

the favourable outlook in both Renewable Products (RP) and Oil Products (OP). The

Price (24 Jul 2026) €31.43

shares reacted very negatively to the results on Friday but we believe this had a lot to do

with the strong performance into results. The results were only in line with cons., RIC: NESTE.HE BBG: NESTE FH

primarily on lower sales volumes ahead of heavy maintenance, but the underlying

Trading data and key metrics

performance in RP was better than we expected with an even higher record margin of

52-wk range €33.59-13.57

$1,223/t which bodes well for the rest of the year. We raise marginally our forecasts on

the back of it and are still 7% above consensus for 2026E EBITDA. Market cap. €24.1b/US$27.5b

Shares o/s 768m (ORD)

Volatility and maintenance near-term, tight supply/demand medium-term Free float 55%

Management did not provide any guidance on margins for the rest of 2026 again and Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,531

flagged the significant uncertainty around diesel prices and risk of higher feedstock Avg. daily value (m) €44.4

prices. We have only seen modest feedstock price increases for now and our tracker Common s/h equity (12/26E) €9.42b

indicates that the RP margin averaged has $1,083/t QTD, which is 23% above P/BV (12/26E) 2.6x

consensus of $1,045/t (UBSe $995/t). We had already factored in the heavy EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)