AstraZeneca 2Q‘26 Results - Initial Diagnosis

Research evidence excerpt

AstraZeneca 2Q‘26 Results - Initial Diagnosis

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 38.9%

Forecast dividend yield 2.0%

Forecast stock return 40.9%

Market return assumption 9.1%

Forecast excess return 31.8%

Company Description

AstraZeneca is a large-cap Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company. Its main disease areas

are oncology, biopharmaceuticals (focusing on cardiovascular, renal & metabolism,

respiratory & immunology and vaccines/immune therapies), and rare diseases (vie the Alexion

acquisition). AstraZeneca invests heavily in research and development, and strives to be a first-

mover in next-generation therapeutics and modalities. AstraZeneca is one of the largest

international pharma companies operating in China.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

All biopharma companies face risks around R&D pipeline success/failure, regulatory oversight

& approval decisions, PBM/country drug pricing negotiations, competitor product

developments, patent challenges and product liability. AstraZeneca company-specific risks

include: On the upside: (1) outperformance of new launch assets relative to expectations,

including Enhertu, Imfinzi, camizestrant, baxdrostat and Dato-DXd; (2) above average late-

stage pipeline success; (3) greater margin leverage from incremental sales growth vs

expectations. On the downside: (1) underperformance of mid-lifecycle assets versus

expectations; (2) below average late-stage pipeline success; (3) significant patent expiries

2029-2032 include Lynparza, Imfinzi, Tagrisso; (4) China investigations.

Valuation: We value AstraZeneca based on a multiple of 2026/27E underlying UBS EPS,

informed by peer valuations, growth vs peers and PharmaValues NPV.

First Read: AstraZeneca 27 July 2026 ab 3