Saipem (SPMI.MI) Revises Down FY26 EBITDA Based on Middle East Conflict; Commercial Activity Remains Buoyant

Research evidence excerpt

Saipem (SPMI.MI) Revises Down FY26 EBITDA Based on Middle East Conflict; Commercial Activity Remains Buoyant

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28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 12 pages

Saipem (SPMI.MI)

Revises Down FY26 EBITDA Based on Middle East Conflict; Commercial

Activity Remains Buoyant

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (27 Jul 26 17:30) €4.36 Saipem’s 2Q results came in below market expectations, reflecting the

Target price €5.10 impact of Middle East disruptions. Management revised down FY26E

EBITDA guidance to incorporate conflict-related costs incurred and those Expected share price return 17.0%

expected in 2H26. The company’s backlog remains materially exposed to Expected dividend yield 3.9%

the Middle East (c.40%) and order intake rebounded sequentially during Expected total return 20.9%

the quarter, supported by continued commercial activity across the region Market Cap €8,701M

as well as other key markets, suggesting award momentum has remained US$9,891M

broadly resilient despite the ongoing conflict.

2Q26 Summary — 2Q EBITDA of €402M was -14% below Visible Alpha consensus

(€469M), primarily driven by extra costs in the Asset Based Services division related Kate O’SullivanAC

to the Middle East conflict and lower utilisation rates in offshore drilling. Net income +44-20-7986-5704

of €53M was below consensus of €93M driven by the operating result, higher tax kate.osullivan@citi.com

rate, and depreciation. Alastair R Syme

alastair.syme@citi.com

2Q Orders Rebound — 2Q shows a clear re-acceleration in order intake - c. €4B (vs

consensus €3.5B and €1.7B in 1Q), with a well-diversified mix across onshore EPC Oliver G Connor

(Saudi gas), energy transition (ENI biorefinery), offshore EPCI (Saudi) and offshore

Tianhong Bi, CFASURF (Angola), supporting improved backlog visibility into 2026–27.