Kiatnakin Phatra Bank: Valuations exceed L-T sustainable returns

Research evidence excerpt

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank: Valuations exceed L-T sustainable returns

r T1 ratio and higher earnings cyclicality than peers, we believe ROE is nearing

From To % ch Cons.

a peak while the current DPS may be difficult to sustain long term. 12/26E 7.79 9.37 20 8.89

12/27E 6.48 8.89 37 9.16

Structural non-NII growth likely to normalize after strong H126 12/28E 5.81 7.22 24 9.17

We remain positive on the structural growth outlook for KKP’s wealth management

Peach Patharavanakulplatform and DIME brokerage business, but expect fee-income growth to slow to 8% in

Analyst

2027E from 15% in 2026E. Recent growth partly reflected favorable capital markets peach.patharavanakul@ubs.com

amid low interest rates. KKP noted penetration among high-net-worth clients is already +662-613 5717

advanced, with future gains increasingly reliant on the mass-affluent segment, where

revenue intensity is typically lower. A higher-rate environment could also shift customers

toward lower-fee products. We expect non-NII to remain a positive earnings contributor,

but at a more moderate pace than in the past 12–18 months.

Valuation: From recovery to maturity: positives more than priced in

As discussed in our 25 June report, the sustainability of elevated dividends, along with

political stability, could support capital inflows into the Thai banking sector relative to

the SET Index. As such, investors are increasingly adopting valuation frameworks that

better reflect dividend expectations. Our new PT of Bt98 is based on 11.1x 12m fwd PE,

anchored to a L-T sustainable 70% dividend payout ratio. Our previous P/BV-based

approach would imply a value of Bt89/share, or 1.1x P/BV and 10.6% L-T sustainable

ROE. Among Asian banking sectors, Thai banks currently trade at the second-highest