ASEAN Equity Strategy: Can ASEAN benefit beyond AI?

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Equity Strategy: Can ASEAN benefit beyond AI?

nd, nicole.goh@ubs.com

Malaysia and Singapore. As market leadership broadens beyond a narrow group of AI +603-2781 1133

winners, however, ASEAN could attract incremental inflows particularly into markets

Alex Manoonpol

offering earnings visibility, reform momentum and valuation support. Recent Analyst

performance may be an early indication of a shift, with ASEAN outperforming broader alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

EM and Asia by 16% since KOSPI's June 2026 peak. +662-613 5770

John Te, CFA

Key themes that will drive markets in H226 Analyst

1) Direct AI exposure remains limited at 8% of ASEAN (versus 31% for EM/APAC), but john.te@ubs.com

the region provides selective opportunities and diversification benefits. 2) Oil and food +632-8784 8814

inflation will be a key swing factor for growth, earnings and margins, with the Kruti Shah, CFA

Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia most vulnerable. El Niño adds a further layer of risk, Strategist

with ASEAN equities underperforming by 7% on average during past cycles. 3) While kruti.shah@ubs.com

the bulk of the tightening cycle is likely behind us, higher-for-longer rates remain a +91-22-6155 6031

headwind. Philippines is the most sensitive to US rates, while local rates matter more for Claire Long

Indonesia. 4) Policy and political uncertainty are key overhangs for Indonesia and the Economist

Philippines, while election-related risks are building in Malaysia. 5) Value-up initiatives claire.long@ubs.com

in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand could create scope for a sustained re-rating. +65 6495 7426

How are we positioned within ASEAN?

Our ASEAN market ratings are based on the EM & APAC Equity strategy framework. We

are overweight Malaysia and Vietnam, where supportive structural and policy