Vietnam Dairy Products: Q226 prelim: Strong beat

Research evidence excerpt

Vietnam Dairy Products: Q226 prelim: Strong beat

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 18.8%

Forecast dividend yield 7.7%

Forecast stock return 26.6%

Market return assumption 9.4%

Forecast excess return 17.2%

Company Description

Vietnam Dairy Products (Vinamilk) is the largest dairy products company in Vietnam, with

market share of 46.4% by value as of FY25, according to Euromonitor. The company began

operations in 1976 and was listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in 2006. It produces,

markets and distributes dairy products including milk, yoghurt, drinking yoghurt, fermented

yoghurt, ice cream and cheese. As of 2025, it operates 17 dairy factories and 15 farms in

Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and the US and is one of the 50 largest dairy producers globally. Its

distribution network includes 250,000 points of sale across Vietnam.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Vinamilk from a DCF methodology.

We believe company-specific risks include: inadequate strategic planning resulting in an

inability to meet long-term strategic objectives; increasing competition resulting in margin

pressure and market share losses; credit risks resulting from default or non payment by

distributors or retailers; social media risk that may lead to reputational damage; succession

risk where key roles in the company are not satisfactorily filled within an acceptable

timeframe; breakdown of relationships with key customers resulting in a loss of revenue;

product contamination due to operational negligence; IT security breach; inventory

obsolescence; increase in raw milk prices or the lack of supply of raw materials given that

Vinamilk imports 70% of its raw materials; rising operating expenses such as wages, utilities,