China Copper Sector: Firm fundamentals; Reiterate our positive view on HK/China copper miners

Research evidence excerpt

China Copper Sector: Firm fundamentals; Reiterate our positive view on HK/China copper miners

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

China Copper Sector Equities

Hong KongFirm fundamentals; Reiterate our positive view

on HK/China copper miners Basic Materials

Sharon Ding

Analyst

sharon.ding@ubs.com

Strong fundamentals supported by continued supply constraints and declining +852-2971 6284

inventory

Suxi Zheng, PhD

Copper prices have remained resilient at elevated levels despite the Middle East conflict Analyst

and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. We believe this resilience is mainly suxi.zheng@ubs.com

supported by strong fundamentals. China copper concentrate imports started +852-3712 2601

negative growth since April, marking the first decline since 2021 (Figure 5China'scoperconcentrateimportscontinuedtofal). Meanwhile, Daniel Major

spot copper concentrate TC has fallen below US$-140/t (Figure 4ContinuedTC/RCdeclining), highlighting the Analyst

severe tightness in the concentrate market. China’s copper concentrate inventories have daniel.major@ubs.com

also more than halved from their peak as smelters slow production. Consequently, into +44-20-7568 3472

July, China refined copper production is likely to firstly decline (Figure 9Chinasmeltersslowdown), while

copper scrap imports can no longer provide an easy supply buffer. These supply

constraints continue to push inventories lower, with a record-low level for China.

Potential US tariffs are a modest headwind, while demand from data centres

can largely offset the impacts

The UBS global team has outlined a range of Section 232 tariff scenarios and their

potential impact on copper prices. In our view, US copper imports are likely to slow if and