Global Strategy AI Debt Boom: cracks emerge, but the cycle extends

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy AI Debt Boom: cracks emerge, but the cycle extends

ing Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Projections Higher

As we enter a busy period of hyperscaler earnings with Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon

reporting this week on the back of Alphabet, the near-term focus in credit markets will

remain on capex guidance and the implications for debt issuance. In our 2H 2026

outlook, we raised our overall US IG Tech issuance forecasts to $450bn, reflecting a

broader issuer base funding the AI capex cycle. However, given Alphabet's recent

increase in FY '26 capex guidance to $195-205bn, as well as the upwards revision to

Microsoft from our Software team to $261bn (from $234bn) for FY '27, we now raise

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our hyperscaler debt issuance contribution to $275-285bn globally (up from $230-

240bn previously) for 2026 with a 70%/30% USD/non-USD currency mix, reflecting the

growing likelihood that many of these issuers will remain recurring borrowers with more

immediate near-term capex needs that surprise to the upside and limited FCF capacity.

Additionally, for the non-USD portion of supply, we continue to believe that broad

diversification across multiple currencies should reduce the risk of oversupply in any

individual market, including in EUR, where we see limited risk of hyperscaler supply

indigestion.

Recent Underperformance of New Deals Reflects a More Selective Market

New IG tech deals in the past month have shown some signs of fragility, both on the

demand side and in secondary market performance. The July IG debt issuance from

Amazon was only 1.6x oversubscribed vs. 3.4x in March. At the same time, several

recent tech deals have widened considerably post issuance, with more weakness in

longer-dated tenors (some between +20-50bps wider in 20y+ maturities), reflective of