First Read TIM Mobile Weakens Further Despite Resilient Margins; 2Q26 Results

Research evidence excerpt

First Read TIM Mobile Weakens Further Despite Resilient Margins; 2Q26 Results

Global Research

27 July 2026ab

First Read

TIM Equities

Mobile Weakens Further Despite Resilient Brazil

Margins; 2Q26 Results Wireless Communications

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target R$25.00

We view the 2Q26 print as weak despite broadly in-line headlines. Mobile

momentum deteriorated further, with MSR growth slowing to 4.6% YoY and core

customer monetization weakening more sharply. Cost discipline continues to Price (27 Jul 2026) R$21.50

protect margins and cash flow, but sustained competition could eventually require RIC: TIMS3.SA BBG: TIMS3 BZ

higher discounts and retention spending, pressuring profitability. While the print

raises downside risk to medium-term growth, TIM’s 10% 2026E dividend and FCF Trading data and key metrics

yields provide valuation support (TIMS3 at R$21.5). We are Neutral rated, and see 52-wk range R$28.35-19.80

limited rerating potential until mobile trends stabilize. What to Watch: Watch for Market cap. R$51.4b/US$10.0b

stabilization in MSR and customer-generated revenue, postpaid ARPU trends, Shares o/s 2,389m (ORD)

discount intensity, and the underlying bad-debt run rate. We believe the key risk is Free float 33%

whether protecting mobile growth begins to require higher commercial spending or Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,895

pressure margins. Key Highlights: Avg. daily value (m) R$133.3

The concern is the direction of mobile, not the headline miss: MSR slowed Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$22.9b

to 4.6% YoY from 5.6%, while the major financial lines landed broadly in line P/BV (12/26E) 2.2x

with expectations. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM

Core customer monetization weakened faster than MSR: customer- EPS (UBS, diluted) (BRL)