Japan Chemicals Sector: Key point for chemicals: Silicon wafer supply-demand balance and prices

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Chemicals Sector: Key point for chemicals: Silicon wafer supply-demand balance and prices

Global Research

27 July 2026ab

Japan Chemicals Sector Equities

JapanKey point for chemicals: Silicon wafer supply-

demand balance and prices Chemicals

Shunta Omura

Analyst

shunta.omura@ubs.com

Supply-demand balance for 12-inch silicon wafers: Might have tightened +81-3-5208 6244

sooner than we had expected

Our forecasts assume industry utilisation rates for 12-inch wafers of

82.2%/87.7%/93.6% in 2026/2027/2028, respectively, and anticipate supply-demand

tightening no earlier than H2 2028 (UBS Global I/O Silicon Wafers "Silicon wafer: last

laggard to recover ahead ..."4/21/2026). However, according to comments made on 24

July by Masahiko Todoroki, Senior Managing Corporate Officer of Shin-Etsu Chemical

(4063, Buy), the company's shipments of 12-inch wafers appear to have increased

sharply since June, with a record high being posted in June. He also indicated that

competitors also appear to be operating at full capacity (link). We now see a high

likelihood that the supply-demand balance has tightened more quickly than we had

expected. According to Mr. Todoroki, supply-demand balances also appear to be

tightening rapidly for test wafers and dummy wafers, in addition to prime wafers. This is

likely because semiconductor device manufacturers are launching new production lines

one after another.

Rapid supply-demand tightening, limited growth in supply from Chinese

companies

Possible factors include (1) stronger demand from AI data centres, (2) requests to secure

safety inventories in response to the Middle East situation and (3) supply volumes that

may be lower than we had assumed. Since silicon wafer manufacturers do not disclose