Australian Online Classifieds: 2H26e previews. Vols key risk in FY27e but yield growth largely stable

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Online Classifieds: 2H26e previews. Vols key risk in FY27e but yield growth largely stable

Australian Online Classifieds UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP MOSTSector ThesisFAVOREDMap LEAST FAVORED

Car Group (Buy PT $32.80/sh)

Seek Limited (Buy PT $18.80/sh)

Pivotal Questions Q: Is slowing global and domestic macro backdrop likely to see downside risk on volumes

across the sector?

Yes. We see rising risk for slowing volume growth at CAR/REA/SEK due to rising macro risk. In

particular, our various volume and inventory trackers are starting to see softening trends emerge in

May-July, particularly at CAR and SEK, whilst we see REA volume risk likely slightly delayed but still to

emerge in FY27 due to specific nuance related to property tax changes. We currently sit-4%/- 3%/-

4% below consensus FY27e EBITDA for CAR/REA/SEK largely driven by our slightly softer volume

assumptions across the board.

Q: Can the sector maintain its yield growth trajectory despite likely softening volumes into

FY27?

We see CAR and SEK most able to maintain their current level of yield growth into FY27, despite

softening macro, particularly given we have recently noticed some supportive price rises across their

products in June/July, which de-risks the yield story. For REA, we continue to forecast double digit

yield growth but likely to slow to 11% in FY27e (vs 13% in FY26e) but we see further downside risk

from slower than expected take-up of Luxe and potential for negative geo mix given Syd/Melb are

starting to underperform relative to the other cities.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? The market is largely pricing in a slightly worse case scenario on volume growth into FY27 due to

rising macro risks but also maintains a more cautious view on long term growth across CAR, REA,