New Zealand Retail: Carts, Clicks & Confidence; 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

New Zealand Retail: Carts, Clicks & Confidence; 2Q26

Global Research

27 July 2026ab

New Zealand Retail Equities

New ZealandCarts, Clicks & Confidence; 2Q26

Retail

Marcus Curley

2Q26 saw underperformance in NZ Retail stocks at -11% vs NZX50 +6% Analyst

Poor retail sector performance was driven by specific issues for KMD, WHS and MHJ. marcus.curley@ubs.com

KMD's weakness reflected the fallout from its heavily discounted equity raise, while +64-9-913 4750

WHS and MHJ saw earnings downgrades post their trading updates. HLG was the Thomas Maclean

strongest performer (+5%) following its strong 1H26 result. Associate Analyst

thomas.maclean@ubs.com

A partial recovery in consumer confidence is yet to flow into NZ retail trading +64-9-913 2000

NZ apparel retail sales fell 3% in the quarter, reflecting pressure on household disposable

income from higher fuel costs. Apparel spend in Australia was more robust, up 7% in

April & May. Consumer confidence dropped materially across both NZ and Australia in

April but partly recovered in May and June helped by: 1) reduced fuel prices as Middle

East (ME) tension eased; and 2) stronger Australian labour market. Interestingly, retail

business sentiment hasn't recovered in NZ with retail business confidence and retail

profit expectations declining ~73% and ~112%, respectively, since the onset of the ME

conflict (Figures 36 and 37). The disconnect suggests the recent rebound in consumer

confidence has not yet translated into stronger retail trading conditions in NZ.

Website traffic strong for Glassons, Hallensteins and Kathmandu

Website traffic generally remained robust through the quarter, pointing to continued

consumer engagement online. Glassons was the standout, with traffic up 30% QoQ