Australian Real Estate Sector Update: FY26 results preview: Holding the line

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Real Estate Sector Update: FY26 results preview: Holding the line

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Australian Real Estate Sector Update Equities

AustraliaFY26 results preview: Holding the line

Real Estate

Cody Shield, CFA

REIT interest poised to pick up at peak rates Analyst

REIT earnings kicks off with COF on 4-Aug although we expect the RBA decision on 11- cody.shield@ubs.com

Aug to set the tone for the season ahead. The A-REIT 200's YTD total return of -7% +61-2-9324 2903

substantially lags the ASX 200 at +4% with persistent inflation, elevated rates and post- Solomon Zhang, CFA

Budget blues contributing to a tough period for listed real estate. From here, the setup Analyst

for the sector is compelling: it now trades at an undemanding valuation (14x NTM P/E solomon.zhang@ubs.com

and -8% disc. to NTA ex GMG/CHC) with solid growth on offer (3y EPS CAGR 5.8% ex +61-2-9324 2007

GMG/CHC vs. 4.4% in Jan-26). UBS economists anticipate the RBA will hike +25bps to a Miriam Pritchard

peak cash rate of 4.6% next month - we therefore expect Aug-26 reporting to serve as a Analyst

'clearing event' from both a rates and earnings perspective and provide generalists the miriam.pritchard@ubs.com

confidence to return to the sector. More broadly, we see investor subsector preferences +61-2-9324 2270

now switching from retail to resi given relative performance YTD, although better clarity Aman Madhyastha

on retail earnings has us holding the line into results. Associate Analyst

aman.madhyastha@ubs.com

What are we looking for across Aug-26? +61-2-9324 2000

Above all else, we anticipate volatile reactions to beats/misses. Key watch points for the

large-cap REITs are as follows: 1) GMG: GAIP could crystallise a sizeable performance fee