Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: ECB press conference

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: ECB press conference

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Global Economics & Strategy Economics

GlobalDeep Speak: ECB press conference

Elena Amoruso

Strategist

elena.amoruso@ubs.com

A new LLM-based tracker of central bank sentiment and thematic shifts +44-20-7567 0239

We developed an AI-based approach to measure policy tone for the Fed, ECB, and Arend Kapteyn

BoJ. Using LLMs, we analyze policy-relevant remarks in speeches, interviews and Economist

press conferences and score them on a hawkish/dovish scale, offering insights into arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

sentiment shifts as well as thematic drivers and speakers' contributions. Updated

daily, the dataset spans over two decades and is accessible via an interactive Reinhard Cluse

dashboard and a Python API (>Access Dataset). Economist

reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

More conditional, but still marginally hawkish

According to our model, President Lagarde’s tone shifted in a less hawkish direction

relative to the June press conference (Figure 1LagardereadsmorehawkishthaninApril.). Communication became more

conditional: explicit hawkish statements declined, while mixed and implicitly dovish

language increased (Figure 3Hawkishsignalingbecomesmoreexplicit). Compared with her post-Sintra speeches and interviews,

however, her tone was marginally more hawkish (Figure 2.butmorehawkishthaninherrecentpre-metingapearances, see our pre-meeting update).

The moderation was driven overwhelmingly by inflation tone, which retreated after

rising in June to levels last seen in 2022 (Figure 4 Inflationtonereaches202highs,hawkishrateguidancere-emerges and Figure 5 Inflationconcernsrise,butwithlitlegrowthofset.). Downside risks to growth