EMEA Economic Comment: CEEMEA macro views: Postcard from London

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Economic Comment: CEEMEA macro views: Postcard from London

cohesion fund inflows could improve the medium-

term growth outlook. In the case of Poland, client questions focused on persistent

inflation undershoots, including in food prices, policy rate prospects, consumer trends,

taxation proposals and the outlook for Polish banks (see EM EMEA Financials call slides).

Investor questions regarding general elections due in Autumn 2027 highlighted that

political uncertainty has become a more important driver of sentiment. We did not

receive many questions on the Czech Republic this time - mainly around how the Czech

inflation trends are different to the rest of CE3. In the case of Romania, investors were

keen to discuss how the current fluid political backdrop could affect fiscal consolidation;

and there was also awareness of a growing risk of missing out on NGEU funds as the 31

August application deadline approaches.

South Africa

The most frequently asked topics were: a) could growth finally take off after many years

of 1% performance - and relatedly the progress on the electricity and transport situation

(Transnet), b) any repercussion from the 4 November municipal elections for the ANC

policies on the national level and any read-through into President Ramaphosa's

succession, and c) which asset classes (FX, rates, credit or equity) offer better value given

also our constructive view on fiscal consolidation.

Turkey

Investors most frequently discussed the issues around disinflation: the main reasons why

there was limited progress on disinflation and the channels to rekindle disinflation. We

discussed the role of the TRY depreciation trajectory and the role of (minimum) wage

setting in services inflation inertia. At the same time, there was sympathy for our tactical