Pricing power vs. cost pressure: five themes to watch

Research evidence excerpt

Pricing power vs. cost pressure: five themes to watch

IdeaAlphaSignalsMEarnings Preview

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Woolworths Group Ltd WOW.AX

LFL sales growth Likely upside surprise Modest revision higher

• FY26 AU Food EBIT guidance of mid-/high single digit growth YoY; consensus +7.4%. Focus on 7-week trading

update (cons 1H27e SSSG +4.5%). WOW comp easier vs. COL at +2.1%, tailwind from collectables.

• FY26e consensus AU Food total sales +4.5% YoY vs. 3Q +5.9% and 1H +3.6%; focus to be on extent of 4Q

industrial action recoup unwind, price investment, and ability to offset supply chain inflation.

• Consensus FY26e AU Food EBIT margin +15bpts vs. pcp and GP margin -10bpts YoY reflecting industrial

action impact cycling, improved top line offset by freight inflation and price investment step up.

• Big W: FY26 guidance for positive EBIT and free cash flow (1H weighted)

• Look for colour on i) potential rescheduling of investor day (previously planned for May-26); ii) supply chain

ramp-up; iii) changes to pricing/network expansion following expanded ACCC powers.

Coles Group Limited COL.AX

• Supermarkets: MSe FY26e SSSG +3.3% (consensus +3.6%) implies consistent gap to WOW in 4Q vs 3Q

(consensus FY26 +4.0% WOW AU Food SSSG), consistent with channel check feedback

• Focus on trading update (consensus 1H27e SSSG +4.1%). COL comp harder vs. WOW at +4.9%.

• Liquor: Expect ongoing softness (SSSG -4.2% 2H26e MSe, consensus -4.4%), noting price investment from

EDV. Potential for big box network consolidation given sales underperformance (-~20% in 1H/3Q)

• MSe FY26e +40bpts Supermarkets EBIT margin expansion. SSI program to broadly offset cost inflation; with

GP benefit (+30bpts) through retail media, store productivity and stock loss recoup.