1H26/FY26 Results Preview: EEMEA - South Africa Banks | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

1H26/FY26 Results Preview: EEMEA - South Africa Banks | Europe

Update

July 27, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MEEMEA - South Africa Banks | Europe James Starke, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26/FY26 Results Preview James.Starke@rmbmorganstanley.comNicole Player, CFA +27 11 587-0814

Research Associate

Nicole.Player@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0807

Mixed season: CPI/SBK lead at +21%/+9%Y dHEPS, while NED (-

EEMEA - Banks & Fintech

2%Y; 4% below consensus) on ETI base effects and FSR (-8%Y; Europe

5% below) absorbs UK one-offs. We retain FSR as Top Pick on Industry View In-Line

ex-UK mid-teens growth and exit optionality; buy ABG on value What’s Changed

(6.9x PE). SBK fairly valued at current levels. AbsaPrice TargetGroup Ltd (ABGJ.J) FromZAc 26,600 ToZAc 26,800

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd

Key Takeaways (CPIJ.J) From To

Price Target ZAc 512,000 ZAc 524,000

Overweight FSR: FY26 nEPS falls 8%Y and misses consensus by 5% on the UK

FirstRand Limited (FSRJ.J) From To

provision, but ex-UK growth is mid-teens and a UK exit is a catalyst.

Price Target ZAc 10,200 ZAc 10,600

Overweight ABG for value: 1H26 dHEPS +8%Y is 4% below consensus on Africa

Nedbank Group Ltd (NEDJ.J) From To

NIM pressure, but 6.9x PE and 8.0% DY more than discounted in recent sell-off. Price Target ZAc 29,400 ZAc 30,100

Retain OW on CPI: 1H27 dHEPS +21%Y beats consensus by 2ppt; structural Standard Bank (SBKJ.J) From To

Price Target ZAc 33,600 ZAc 34,200

growth remains intact, though 25.1x PE limits rerating scope.

Strong relative print expected for SBK: Loan growth and cost discipline support Exhibit 2 : Sector preference ranking order

higher ROE, CLR improves to 84bps; stay EW as 9.3x PE prices in the quality.

Ticker Rating (ZAR) Return PE+1 PB+1