Mexico Cattle Imports Resuming; Clear Positive for JBS/MBRF

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Cattle Imports Resuming; Clear Positive for JBS/MBRF

Idea

July 27, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MLatAm Proteins | Latin America Ricardo L Alves

Equity Analyst

Mexico Cattle Imports Ricardo.Alves@morganstanley.comLucas T Mussi +55 11 3048-6238

Research Associate

Lucas.Mussi@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9565

Resuming; Clear Positive for Henrique Morello

Henrique.Morello@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6041

JBS/MBRF

LatAm Food & Beverage

Latin America

Even if gradual, the USDA clearing Mexico cattle imports makes Industry View No Rating

for the most important (positive) development for US Beef

Packers in recent months, in our view. We still think US Beef

margins will remain low through ~2028, but we have just turned

more bullish in 2H26.

What happened: News reports on Friday (July 24), after market close, indicated that

the U.S. will resume Mexican cattle imports through Douglas, Arizona, in 30 days,

with two additional New Mexico ports expected to reopen in the coming months.

The move partially reverses the full import ban that was first imposed in Nov 2024

in response to the New World Screwworm spread in Mexico. Of note, imports

briefly resumed in Apr 2025 before halting again in May. Importantly, Mexico has

historically supplied roughly ~1.2mn cattle annually to the US, equivalent to ~4% of

domestic slaughter; in 2024, 16% of imports entered through the Douglas border,

while ~51% flowed through New Mexico. According to the USDA, improved

surveillance, expanded sterile-fly capacity, and stricter screening protocols now

allow trade to resume safely, although some farmer groups remain contrarian to the

decision until the parasite is fully eradicated.

Our take: Arguably the most important (and in this case positive) catalyst for US