Guidance Raised (1H Only); 2Q Results Due Jul 31, eGFR Briefing Scheduled for Aug 4

Research evidence excerpt

Guidance Raised (1H Only); 2Q Results Due Jul 31, eGFR Briefing Scheduled for Aug 4

Update

July 28, 2026 12:56 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MOtsuka Holdings (4578) | Japan Shinichiro Muraoka

Equity Analyst

Guidance Raised (1H Only); 2Q Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.comJaeheon Lee +81 3 6836-5424

Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8443

Results Due Jul 31, eGFR

Briefing Scheduled for Aug 4

Key Takeaways Otsuka Holdings (4578.T, 4578 JT)

Positive for the share price. However, we note that depending on the degree of Pharmaceuticals | Japan

share price gains over the next week, the stock could face near-term profit-taking Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

after Aug. 4. Price target ¥14,100

Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) ¥11,325

Reiterate OW rating. We forecast peak sales for Voyxact at $5-6bn (bullish). Our Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥5,981.1

PT is ¥14,100. We continue to see major medium/long-term upside potential. Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥11.5

Last year, the company raised 1H guidance two days before 2Q results, then

raised full-year guidance on the day of the 2Q results. It subsequently raised

guidance again following 3Q results (in October).

Voyxact eGFR data (2 years). The company announced on Jul 27 that the data will

be presented at the GlomCon conference on Aug 3, followed by a briefing session

at 9:00am JST on Aug 4.

1H guidance raised: The company increased 1H guidance by ¥114bn in sales and

¥107bn in business profit (business profit guidance raised from ¥173bn to ¥280bn).

Our 1H business profit forecast is ¥209.2bn. The revision reflects strong

performance from key products (incl. Jynarque, Abilify Maintena (Europe), Voyxact,

and Rexulti), as well as lower-than-expected R&D spending. Voyxact's 2Q sales