Wartsila (WRT1V.HE): Valuation premium still at risk of compression

Research evidence excerpt

Wartsila (WRT1V.HE): Valuation premium still at risk of compression

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27 Jul 2026 00:00:04 ET │ 18 pages

Wartsila (WRT1V.HE)

Valuation premium still at risk of compression

CITI'S TAKE

The key new datapoint from Wartsila's 2Q26 was the backlog gross margin

improvement since the start of 2025 of >500bps. We see this disclosure as

underpinning a 2028E Energy margin of 18%, which while a solid Sell

improvement, looks unlikely to drive major consensus EBIT upgrades Price (23 Jul 26 18:30) €30.58

(particularly since revenue expectations look high). This contrasts with a

valuation at a premium to Siemens Energy, which in our view does require Target price €28.00↑

upgrades to justify it. We think this is the real problem with the guidance of from €27.50

similar NTM demand: part of the bull case on Wartsila was that it was more Expected share price return -8.4%likely to beat on orders, which is now signalled to be less likely going forward

with management acknowledging lengthening lead times. We raise our TP Expected dividend yield 1.8%

to €28 but reiterate our Sell rating. Expected total return -6.6%

Market Cap €18,095M

Harder to beat Energy orders — Wartsila's Energy guidance was for 'similar' NTM

US$20,587Mdemand, from 'better' in the prior quarter. This is not the first time that Wartsila has

done this: it lowered its guide after 2Q25's Energy order print, before raising again at

4Q results. However, the tone this time was interesting, given the acknowledgement

this time of Wartsila's own capacity constraints and lengthening lead times. Some

industry observers taken the view that engine OEMs were better-placed than Price Performance

turbine players because they could still benefit from the latter group's capacity (RIC: WRT1V.HE, BB: WRT1V FH)

constraints.