Nongfu Spring (9633.HK): Citi-hosted investor meeting takeaways & 1H26 preview

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Nongfu Spring (9633.HK): Citi-hosted investor meeting takeaways & 1H26 preview

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26 Jul 2026 18:00:00 ET │ 11 pages

Nongfu Spring (9633.HK)

Citi-hosted investor meeting takeaways & 1H26 preview

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Citi hosted a physical investor meeting with Nongfu’s CFO in Hangzhou

last Thur. Mgmt has maintained its topline guidance of “double-digit Price (24 Jul 26 16:10) HK$39.90

growth in full-year 26E”, albeit industry’s negative factors in 2H. Despite Target price HK$52.20

mgmt’s “no guidance on 26E NPM”, we expect only moderate YoY NPM Expected share price return 30.8%

pressure in its full-year 26E (vs our forecast of largely YoY stable NPM in Expected dividend yield 3.9%

1H26). Compared to our mgmt discussion about two weeks ago, mgmt Expected total return 34.7%

sounded more confident in its full-year topline outlook (incl. packaged

Market Cap HK$448,734M water biz recovery and no disruption of 2H26E jasmine tea sales). Citi

US$57,218M anticipates Nongfu’s 1H26 group sales to expand by ~16% YoY and 1H26

NP to grow by 15% YoY. We expect Nongfu’s half-year NP growth to

moderate from 15% YoY in 1H26 to ~10% YoY in 2H26E (vs the market’s

expectation of much sharper half-year NP slowdown: +18-20% YoY in Xiaopo Wei, CFAAC

1H26 vs +LSD YoY in 2H26E). Maintain Buy on Nongfu. +852-2501-2472

xiaopo.wei@citi.com

Guidance & 2H26 outlook — Mgmt has maintained its topline guidance of “double- Vincent Young

digit growth in full-year 26E”, despite short-term negative factors in 3Q26E +852-2501-2738

(highlighted below). Per mgmt, all of its existing product lines have growth potential vincent.young@citi.com

and the company does not rank product lines by growth priority internally. Mgmt

focuses on its group growth across its entire portfolio in business decisions. Per