Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK): Key Takeaways from Site Visit

Research evidence excerpt

Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK): Key Takeaways from Site Visit

Flash |

26 Jul 2026 17:27:25 ET │ 11 pages

Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK)

Key Takeaways from Site Visit

CITI'S TAKE

Buy We visited Baotou Aluminum, a subsidiary of Chalco, on 23rd-24th Jul

and attended a meeting with Chalco’s management team. Ms. Zhu Dan, Price (24 Jul 26 16:10) HK$8.30

CFO and Board Secretary, and other management team members Target price HK$17.08

attended the meeting. Mgmt. believes China will keep the capacity cap Expected share price return 105.8%

policy. There could be 3%-5% overproduction through increasing current Expected dividend yield 6.5%

intensity, but it is easy for authorities to check the power consumption. Expected total return 112.3%

Key takeaways summarized below. Maintain Buy.

Market Cap HK$177,157M

US$22,589M

Aluminum overproduction - Mgmt. believes China will keep the capacity cap policy.

There could be 3%-5% overproduction through increasing current intensity, but it is

easy for authorities to supervise by checking the power consumption. Considering

the maintenance work for 20+ days, the aluminum output in several months could Jack Shang, CFAAC

be higher while the full year output remains in line with the capacity. In addition, +852-2501-2441

some producers may count the recycling aluminum output to the total primary jack.shang@citi.com

aluminum production statistics, resulting in higher aluminum output than capacity. Anna Wang

+852-2501-2739

anna.d.wang@citi.com

Overseas capacity addition – The State Council Order No. 837, Regulations on Jimmy Feng

Outbound Investment, introduced stricter measures for ODI approval. The funds jimmy.feng@citi.com

outflow for investment in overseas for both SOEs and POEs need to get the ODI Cynthia Wu