2Q26 Preview: At a Crossroads; Waiting for a Signal

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: At a Crossroads; Waiting for a Signal

Venmo. While PayPal

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

management can continue to pursue cost efficiencies and product improvements, framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

we don’t see other realistic catalysts capable of driving a sustained reacceleration in § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

revenue and earnings growth. It has been reported in the Tech Times that the PayPal

board has rejected the bid and is looking for a higher price, though that has not been

confirmed by either party. The original reported bid of $60.50 would have valued

PayPal at approximately 10x cons '27 Adj. EPS and 11.5x our '27 Adj. EPS estimate

(our forecasts are unchanged, and remain below Street). We have been hearing from

investors that they would view that as a favorable outcome, particularly against

processor peer valuations of FISV and GPN trading at 5x '27 Adj. EPS despite ~MSD

revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth algos.

A reported Stripe bid for Open Router may increase uncertainty among investors

that a deal with PayPal has a path forward. The WSJ reported that Stripe is in talks

to buy multi-model API gateway platform, OpenRouter (unconfirmed). There is

some perception among investors that Stripe may be price-sensitive for PYPL (and

unwilling to raise its reported bid, if true). In our view, we think that there is likely

significant code reworking that would to be done within the PayPal code base for

Stripe to get the most leverage (it took PayPal ~13 years to allow Venmo to directly

send money to a PayPal account). Following XYZ's lead on AI-related innovation and