Singapore Property Spotlight: Cross-border spend: who wins the basket?

Research evidence excerpt

Singapore Property Spotlight: Cross-border spend: who wins the basket?

larger sale in Singapore. Adjusted for the price gap, we estimate the S$1.05bn

corresponds to S$1.7-2.1bn (~3.6%) of domestic sales at risk, partly offset by bulk-

buying that only occurs at JB prices. The S$756m inbound estimate avoids the price

issue, but relies partly on stated intentions from 425 Johor respondents.

Location and timing drive the stock impact

Positioning should follow where the spending shifts occur. The study suggests that

Singapore's North may continue to lose the least incrementally because northern

households already shop in JB; the West and North-East could lose the most

incrementally. Central is the only net gainer, based on the study. Fraser Centrepoint

Trust's Causeway Point, one Thomson-East Coast Line stop from Woodlands North,

could therefore be viewed as a two-way corridor node rather than direct casualty.

Grocery and pharmacy leakage could affect Sheng Siong and DFI Retail's Guardian from

2027, with the marginal skew towards pharmacy and beauty given what rail passengers

can carry; the landlord impact would emerge later through tenant affordability and

rental reversions. Orchard landlords and Genting Singapore are better placed to capture

the richer inbound basket. Across the Strait, the arrival point shifts towards Bukit

Chagar, favouring City Square, KOMTAR JBCC and the Coronation Square pipeline.

IGB's Mid Valley Southkey, WCT's Paradigm Mall and AEON remain more dependent on

last-mile links. KPJ Healthcare should benefit from easier services migration, while UEM

Sunrise's Iskandar landbank appears to reflect more of the infrastructure upside. Finally,

opening-year ridership should be interpreted with caution. Initial traffic may disappoint