China Precious Metals: Gold Sentiment Improves, HK/China Gold Equities Offer Better Risk-Reward

Research evidence excerpt

China Precious Metals: Gold Sentiment Improves, HK/China Gold Equities Offer Better Risk-Reward

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

China Precious Metals Equities

Hong KongGold Sentiment Improves, HK/China Gold

Equities Offer Better Risk-Reward Basic Materials

Sharon Ding

Analyst

sharon.ding@ubs.com

Signs of Improving Gold Sentiment as Prices Find Support at US$4,000/oz +852-2971 6284

Gold prices have rebounded since the start of this week, while HK/China gold equities Suxi Zheng, PhD

have risen by c.20% in three days. We believe sentiment towards gold is starting to Analyst

improve, supported by weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and softer inflation suxi.zheng@ubs.com

data, with both CPI and PPI continuing to cool (Figure 1Goldpricemovementstogetherwithmacrodatainthepast1month). Over the past months, pressure +852-3712 2601

has mainly come from growing expectations that interest rates could stay higher for Joni Teves

longer, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and raised Strategist

inflation expectations. Gold has consolidated around US$4,000/oz and repeatedly joni.teves@ubs.com

tested this level, with recent price action suggesting that it may be finding support. The +65-6495 6851

next key events to watch are the Fed’s policy tone at the 31 July FOMC meeting, the July

non-farm payrolls report on 7 August, the July CPI report on 12 August, the Jackson

Hole meeting in late August, and further developments in the Middle East.

Positive Medium-Term Outlook for Gold Remains Unchanged

UBS global team remains positive on the medium-term outlook for gold and forecasts

US$4,675/oz and US$4,800/oz for 2026/27E. Our in-house gold strategist, Joni Teves,

continues to expect prices to rebound from current levels by year-end. Portfolio