Swire Pacific: 1H26 preview: Property booking and resilient flight demand supports earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Swire Pacific: 1H26 preview: Property booking and resilient flight demand supports earnings

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implying a 2-19% YoY growth in dividend. We expect Swire's two residential projects in

12/27E 9.27 9.65 4 8.79

Shanghai Yangjing and Qiantan to contribute earnings from 2H26 onward, with an

12/28E 9.73 9.82 1 9.44

estimated unrecognized contracted sales at RMB10bn and expected margin in the mid-

teens. For Cathay, during the Middle East conflict, there has been a more resilient John Lam, CFA

demand in air travel and we believe there is a potentially more favorable margin outlook Analyst

post conflict. In our view, airfares will likely remain above the pre-conflict level, driven by john-za.lam@ubs.com

accelerating price discovery in which demand proved to be inelastic; tighter flight supply +852-2971 6358

industry wide as airlines expedite the retirement of old aircraft. Mark Leung

Analyst

Valuation: We revise PT upward by 20%, remain Neutral mark.leung@ubs.com

+852-2971 8636

We revise up our PT for Swire Pacific upward by 20% to HK$87.0 to reflect the latest

market cap of Cathay Pacific and Swire Properties, while we assume a narrower discount Perry Yeung

to stub value at 20%, compared to previously 30%, largely in-line to historical average Analyst

perry.yeung@ubs.com

since 2012. This is driven by an improving free cash flow and gearing at Swire Pacific's

+852-2971 6349

parent company level (See Figure 3WeexpectSwirePacificstand-alonenetgearingtocontinueimprovingin2026E-28E). We account for a higher dividend received from

Cathay Pacific and lower capex assumption at HAECO after disposal of ITM operation

and gradual completion of relocation of hangers of HAECO Xiamen, as well as lower

capex assumption in Beverages segment as they settle their new business in Thailand/

Laos.