US Economic Perspectives: US Inflation Monthly: Methodologically down

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives: US Inflation Monthly: Methodologically down

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasUS Inflation Monthly: Methodologically down

Alan Detmeister

Economist

Methodological revisions to make current PCE inflation lower alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

A few weeks ago the BEA announced upcoming methodological changes to PCE

prices would be implemented on September 30. At the time we noted that the Jonathan Pingle

Economist revisions would lower current core PCE price inflation around 0.2pp. Delving more

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

deeply into those revisions, which will be carried back to the start of 2021, we find +1-212-713 2225

that they lower current inflation, but raise inflation from 2022 to 2024, and leave

average inflation essentially unchanged. Abigail Watt

With long-run inflation unchanged, and our forecast already incorporating abigail.watt@ubs.com

notable slowdowns in the impacted categories of software and portfolio +1-212-882 6929

management, we have not altered our projections for price increases in coming Amanda Wilcox

months. Nonetheless, the lowering of recent past monthly changes results in Economist

lower 12-month core PCE inflation through the first part of next year. amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

In order to track the data we receive between now and September 30 our primary

Jalen Nichols

baseline will not include the methodological revisions until September. However,

to present a forecast of what the US price data is likely to look like after September jalen.nichols@ubs.com

30, we have created an alternative post-revision baseline that is included in the +1-212-882 6905

detailed forecast spreadsheet available on our website. We will maintain this

Pierre Lafourcade