Latin American Economic Perspectives Brazil Polls Aggregator: Looking Beyond the National Numbers

Research evidence excerpt

Latin American Economic Perspectives Brazil Polls Aggregator: Looking Beyond the National Numbers

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

Latin American Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasBrazil Polls Aggregator: Looking Beyond the

Fabio RamosNational Numbers

Economist

fabio.ramos@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6525

Approval slips back to 34% Alexandre de Azara

Our compilation of the President’s positive assessment across ten pollsters printed Economist

34%. This is 2pp below our mid-June reading, returning to levels last seen in mid- alexandre.azara@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6570

May. Even so, the move does not fully reverse the gains recorded after the leak of

the audio involving Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Figures 1–2). The 34% reading remains Rodrigo Martins

below the 38% threshold historically associated with administrations that either Economist

secured reelection or successfully backed a successor (Figure 3). rodrigo.martins@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6338

The runoff remains broadly tied

Despite the 34% good/great reading remaining below the 38% threshold discussed

above (Figure 3), President Lula continues to hold a narrow edge over Senator Flávio

Bolsonaro in the runoff. Our computation, based on 18 pollsters, points to 51.4% of

valid votes, down slightly from 53% in mid-June (Figure 4). Statistically speaking,

however, the race remains broadly tied. The apparent contradiction is

straightforward to explain: both frontrunners continue to carry elevated rejection

rates.

The Southeast remains a challenge for Senator Flávio

We compiled the latest publicly available polling data from all Brazilian states. On

the positive side, state-level polls typically survey between 1,000 and 1,500

respondents, resulting in a combined sample close to 30,000 interviews. On the