India Economic Perspectives: India by the Numbers (July 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

India Economic Perspectives: India by the Numbers (July 2026)

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India Economic Perspectives Economics

IndiaIndia by the Numbers (July 2026)

Tanvee Gupta Jain

Economist

India’s economic activity continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace tanvee.guptajain@ubs.com

+91-22-6155 6070

The UBS India Composite Economic Indicator (UBS India-CEI), our leading indicator

based on 15 high-frequency data points, suggests that, on a seasonally adjusted

sequential basis, economic momentum moderated to 0.3% QoQ in the June 2026

quarter, compared with 1.6% QoQ and 3.5% QoQ in the preceding two quarters, partly

reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Demand-side indicators remained

relatively robust, even as broader activity indicators softened in June. Among the high-

frequency indicators, retail 2W and passenger car sales rose 21% YoY and 28% YoY,

respectively, in June, while tractor sales expanded 25.6% YoY. Gross GST collection (ex.

compensation cess) increased13.9% YoY during the month. Goods exports rose 15.5%

YoY in June, largely led by petroleum products, engineering goods and electronics

exports. The manufacturing PMI eased to 54.2 in June from 55 in May. Services

indicators were mixed, as the services PMI moderated to 57.4 in June from 59.8 in May.

Meanwhile, bank credit growth remained strong, at 18.6%YoY as of end-June.

Renewed US-Iran tension: What does it mean for India?

Renewed tension between the US and Iran has revived concerns around energy security

and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (>

Access Dataset) show that for oil and gas tanker crossings, the July average is down to