Mixed 2Q beat, 3Q guide at lower end of expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Mixed 2Q beat, 3Q guide at lower end of expectations

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -7.2%

Forecast dividend yield 4.3%

Forecast stock return -2.9%

Market return assumption 9.3%

Forecast excess return -12.1%

Company Description

The Dow chemical company was founded in 1897 and first listed on the NYSE in 1937. Dow

has transformed through organic growth and acquisitions over its history. It merged with

DuPont to form DowDuPont, later demerging as Dow chemical. Dow is a diversified producer

of upstream chemicals and downstream formulated products with greater than $40B in sales.

Dow sales are roughly half packaging/specialty plastics (majority polyethylenes), with the rest

split between Performance Materials & Coatings (silicones/acrylics) and Industrial

Intermediates & Infrastructure (polyurethanes, ethoxylates).

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our price target for Dow is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple relative to the local market.

Escalating oil and natural gas costs could hurt consumer spending and, hence, demand for

Dow's products. Weaker-than-expected cash flow generation could slow improvement in

credit quality metrics. Earnings for commodity chemical companies are sensitive to swings in

energy costs, especially oil and natural gas. Commodity chemical margins are influenced by

market supply and demand dynamics that individual companies cannot control. As

technology evolves, existing assets and businesses can become less competitive as newer,

low-cost processes are developed. Historically, valuations for commodity chemical companies

tend to be volatile.

First Read: Dow Inc 23 July 2026 ab 2