What Does it Cost to Pivot from ME Reliance? A Japan, South Korea & Taiwan Case Study

Research evidence excerpt

What Does it Cost to Pivot from ME Reliance? A Japan, South Korea & Taiwan Case Study

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

Americas Sustainability Equities

AmericasWhat Does it Cost to Pivot from ME Reliance? A

Japan, South Korea & Taiwan Case Study Global Sustainability

Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFA

Analyst

shneur.gershuni@ubs.com

The morning after starting with LNG and renewables +1-212-713 3974

The ongoing ME conflict has exposed many weaknesses in energy supply chains across

Kathryn Graves, PhD

the globe, which we framed as a "Math Problem" of how to reduce ME exposure of 20

Associate Analyst

MM Boe/d and how it could lead towards a path of "energy independence". In this kathryn.graves@ubs.com

report we focus on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (we plan to continue with other +1-212-713 4871

regions). If these regions decided they no longer wanted to rely so heavily on Gulf

Victoria Kalb

molecules, what would it cost to diversify? We model a practical pathway combining

both accelerated renewables deployment and a shift towards NA LNG supply. For these vicki.kalb@ubs.com

markets we focused on LNG related power supply as we see it as a particular pain point +65-6495 4584

for them. For other regions, the specific pain point could be other areas, like Diesel. That

Manav Gupta

said, we think LNG diversification solves the next 5-10 years, and renewables and its Analyst

narrowing cost gap helps solve the next 20 years. The surprising conclusion from our manav.gupta@ubs.com

model is that it doesn’t cost as much as we initially expected (~$25B), with the primary +1-212-713 4399

investment burden falling on North America (~55%) rather than the importers,

Henri Patricot, CFA

presenting opportunity for US exporters and their supply chain. Furthermore, our model Analyst