NVR Inc Good 2Q, despite EPS miss vs cons; trim estimates & PT

Research evidence excerpt

NVR Inc Good 2Q, despite EPS miss vs cons; trim estimates & PT

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 22.9%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return 22.9%

Market return assumption 9.3%

Forecast excess return 13.6%

Company Description

NVR, Inc. (NVR), headquartered in Reston, VA, is the fourth-largest homebuilder in the US,

based on 2024 volume. The company operates in 36 MSAs across 16 states and goes to

market under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands. NVR caters to a

broad buyer group, including first-time/first move-up (Ryan) and move-up/luxury (NV and

Heartland).

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Price target methodology: Our $7,400 price target is based on roughly 18x our 2027e EPS

and implies a P/B multiple of 6.2x our 2026e. We expect homebuilding industry volume to

remain at healthy levels over at least the next few years.

Risks: (1) rising interest rates could negatively impact affordability, (2) rising home prices could

negatively impact affordability, (3) slowing economic activity could lower consumer

confidence and cause delays in home purchase decisions, (4) potential inventory risk if

demand slows, (5) supply chain issues could negatively impact production cost and timing, (6)

COVID could negatively impact demand and the availability of materials and labor, (7)

weather conditions and natural disasters could delay development work and increase costs,

(8) industrywide labor shortages could delay production and increase cost, (9) municipal

backlogs could delay land approvals and entitlements, (10) a shortage of developed and

entitled land could negatively impact operating expenses and production timing (11)

availability of labor could impact development costs and delivery times.

NVR Inc 23 July 2026 ab 4