Fun with Fertilizers

Research evidence excerpt

Fun with Fertilizers

Powered by Lab Global23 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Equities

North AmericaFun with Fertilizers

Chemicals, Commodity

Lucas Beaumont

Fun with Fertilizers Highlights Analyst

Review of NPK pricing: We review the latest NPK pricing trends below, within lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

we provide our price deck (Fig 1) and comparison of estimates vs. cons. (Fig 2), as +1-212-713 4809

well as a comp table for UBS’ Fertilizer/Ag coverage (3). Joshua Spector, CFA

Analyst

Earnings setups: We highlight our Ag/Ferts coverage earnings setups for next joshua.spector@ubs.com

week. +1-212-713 6188

Brazil Fertilizer Imports: Brazil fertilizer imports are down 5% YTD through Nicole Grueneberg

June, driven by a 16% decline in nitrogen imports due to affordability and Middle Associate Analyst

East supply disruptions. Phosphate imports are modestly lower (down 3% YTD) nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

+1-212-713-2469 also on affordability challenges, while potash imports have remained resilient

(+6% YTD) as we head into Brazil’s peak import season. Christopher Perrella

Nitrogen: Nitrogen markets have remained weak, but pricing appears to be christopher.perrella@ubs.com

stabilizing with the 3Q floor now likely in place and risks shifting back to the +1-212-713 1443

upside for 4Q/1Q as Middle East disruptions elongate supply impacts and add

Anojja Shah

greater cost curve support. Ammonia demand has been pressured by phosphate Analyst

production cuts and is now trading >$230/MT below spot cost curve levels. Urea anojja.shah@ubs.com

declined from $800/MT Apr highs to ~$400/MT but has recovered ~$45/MT over +1-312-525 4310

the past couple of weeks as expectations for further declines faded and pricing is James Cannon

now >$130/MT below the spot cost curve. U.S.