GT Capital: Limited re-rating potential on soft outlook

Research evidence excerpt

GT Capital: Limited re-rating potential on soft outlook

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

GT Capital Equities

PhilippinesLimited re-rating potential on soft outlook

Industrial, Diversified

12-month rating Neutral

Weaker earnings visibility drives downgrade to Neutral Prior : Buy

We cut our 2026-28E EPS for GTCAP by 12-17% on weaker projected auto and 12m price target P540.00

property earnings, amid the industry-wide decline in car sales and continued softness in Prior : P900.00

the property market. We now forecast GTCAP's NP to decline 4.9% this year (from +8%

Price (22 Jul 2026) P480.20

previously), driven primarily by weaker auto sales and GPM. While we expect vehicle

demand to improve next year alongside a recovery in consumer spending, continued RIC: GTCAP.PS BBG: GTCAP PM

peso depreciation against the US dollar is likely to temper earnings recovery, with 2027E

Trading data and key metrics

NP rising only 1.8%, on our estimates. We lower our PT to P540 (from P900), after

52-wk range P717.50-450.00

factoring in lower projected earnings and a wider NAV discount as earnings visibility

weakens. We downgrade the stock to Neutral. In our view, the soft outlook of its Market cap. P103b/US$1.67b

unlisted auto and residential subsidiaries is likely to constrain any meaningful re-rating. Shares o/s 215m (ORD)

Free float 45%

Subdued market conditions support conservative auto sales forecasts Avg. daily volume ('000) 144

TMP's 5M26 auto sales tracked industry weakness with retail volumes declining by Avg. daily value (m) P68.4

13.4%, compared with CAMPI-TMA's 15.7% drop (excludes non-CAMPI member, Common s/h equity (12/26E) P328b

BYD). Including BYD, latest available data shows 4M26 car sales falling by 7.8%, similar P/BV (12/26E) 0.3x

to TMP's 8.0% decrease over the period.