Daily Commodities Note: Oil prices lift, Cu takes a breather

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Commodities Note: Oil prices lift, Cu takes a breather

production, and we have tempered our grade forecasts going forward, which is the key

driver of our earnings estimate downgrades. WGX is the first of our mid-cap coverage in

this quarterly season to omit FY27 guidance, and are electing to provide an update with

financial results (and updated 3-year outlook). We forecast FY27 group production of

405koz at A$3,126/oz excluding OPAs ($3,306/oz including OPA). Despite being a

higher-cost name across our coverage, WGX have relatively capex-light growth,

meaning FCF yields remain strong (20% average spot FCF yield to FY30). We trim our PT

50cps to $7.75/sh but we retain a Buy rating. Link to note Source: UBS.

PDN - Value Emerging: PDN finished FY26 with a wet sail, at/above the upper end of

recently revised guidance delivering production/sales of 4.82/4.35Mlb, in line with UBSe

(4.8/4.4Mlb). Key focus was FY27 guidance, with management guiding production 5.1–

5.6Mlb versus UBSe 5.7Mlb. While this implies a softer outlook than expected, we note

management trended more conservative. Updating for 1) JQ26, 2) moving to the top-

end of FY27 production guidance and 3) leaning more conservative on cost (UBSe unit

cost US$49/lb vs guidance US$44–48/lb) sees us lower our FY26/27 EPSe -17/-8% and

our price target -7% to A$11.70/sh. However, with the share price down ~37% from

2026 highs (versus a ~5% increase in spot uranium and LT price indicators nearing US

$100/lb), we believe the stock is oversold. With PDN 1) continuing to derisk Langer

Heinrich (LHM) while also 2) advancing its growth project Patterson Lake South (PLS)

through key permitting milestones, and 3) the business generating cash (+US$45m Q to

US$265m), we see asymmetric upside and upgrade PDN to BUY.