First Read Chugai Pharmaceutical Important quotes from Roche Q2 call

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Chugai Pharmaceutical Important quotes from Roche Q2 call

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 35.9%

Forecast dividend yield 2.1%

Forecast stock return 38.0%

Market return assumption 7.7%

Forecast excess return 30.3%

Company Description

Chugai is part of the Swiss Roche Group. The company has strength in antibody medicines

and antibody-engineering technologies and holds a diverse portfolio and technologies in

oncology, immunology, rare diseases, ophthalmology, and mid size molecules.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We set our Chugai price target using a PER multiple to our Japan BioPharma universe,

informed by peer valuations and PharmaValues NPV. P/Es are calculated on the basis of UBS-

adjusted numbers. For Chugai, we assume a sector-relative PER of 34%. This compares with a

3m average of 30%, 1-year average of 25%, and a 3-year average of 2%. Our sector relative

PER assumptions are informed by our PharmaValues NPV valuation and consider relative EPS

growth profile of the company versus peers.

Downside risks include failures of clinical development assets (particularly GYM329 and mid

size molecules), delays in approval or slow launch uptake for orforglipron, timing shifts in

recognition of export revenues, and faster than expected erosion of Actemra from biosimilars.

Roche valuation: We value Roche based on a multiple of 2026/27E underlying EPS, informed

by peer valuations, growth relative to peers and our PharmaValues NPV.

All biopharma companies face risks around R&D pipeline success/failure, regulatory oversight

& approval decisions, PBM/country drug pricing negotiations, competitor product

developments, patent challenges and product liability. Roche company-specific downside