UK Economic Comment: BoE preview: Rates on hold on 30 July

Research evidence excerpt

UK Economic Comment: BoE preview: Rates on hold on 30 July

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

UK Economic Comment Economics

United KingdomBoE preview: Rates on hold on 30 July

Anna Titareva

Economist

BoE to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, in another split vote anna.titareva@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 5083

At its upcoming meeting on 30 July, we expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged

at 3.75%, broadly in line with market expectations (pricing +2.5bp). We expect the vote Mustafa Oguz Caylan

Strategistsplit to remain unchanged from the last meeting at 7-2, with Megan Greene and Huw

mustafa.caylan@ubs.com

Pill voting for a 25bp rate hike. That said, we see a risk of Catherine Mann joining them +44-20-7901 5203

in supporting a hike. This follows her recent speech, in which she emphasised the

importance of a disaggregated assessment (e.g. the distribution of inflation Benjamin Jarrett

Strategist

expectations), arguing that it points to greater upside risks to inflation than downside

benjamin.jarrett@ubs.com

risks to activity. However, with inflation coming in softer than expected over the past +44-20-7567 5430

three months, including yesterday's June print, and the latest DMP survey signalling only

a modest increase in wage and inflation expectations in June, we think the majority of Reinhard Cluse

the MPC will remain comfortable with staying on hold. In addition, we expect the Bank’s

reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

updated scenarios to show downward revisions to the near-term inflation forecast, +44-20-7568 6722

reflecting lower energy price assumptions than in April (see more details below), as well

Felix Huefneras the government's decision to cut the VAT rate on electricity bills in October, which we

expect to reduce headline inflation by 0.1pp. Against the backdrop of the recent re-