First Read European Economic Comment: ECB keep rates on hold, as expected

Research evidence excerpt

First Read European Economic Comment: ECB keep rates on hold, as expected

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

First Read

EconomicsEuropean Economic Comment

ECB keep rates on hold, as expected Europe including UK

Reinhard Cluse

Economist

reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

Rates unchanged at 2.25%, as expected

+44-20-7568 6722

As firmly expected, the ECB decided to kept the depo rate unchanged at 2.25%. The

Franziska Fischerfirst paragraph of the ECB's monetary policy statement stressed the significance of

uncertain and volatile energy prices and their inflation implications: "The outlook for

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the June +41-44-239 2054

Eurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in

Felix Huefnerthe Middle East. Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy

shock has yet to play out. The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the felix.huefner@ubs.com

intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects. " +49-69-1369 8280

Anna Titareva

Nevertheless, and similar to the statement in June, the ECB said: "With today’s decision, Economist

the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by anna.titareva@ubs.com

the conflict." +44-20-7568 5083

As regards the outlook, and as expected, the ECB reiterated its intention to follow "a

data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate

monetary policy stance (...) without pre-committing to a particular rate path."

What to watch in the press conference

What will today’s press conference reveal about the likelihood of the ECB delivering