US Daily Data Recap: Claims plunge & updated fiscal projections

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: Claims plunge & updated fiscal projections

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasClaims plunge & updated fiscal projections

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

Initial claims fell -22K to 187K in the week ending July 18, the lowest level since amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

September 1969 in the revised data. We argue that the drop likely reflects seasonal

adjustment distortions and mistiming following the Independence Day holiday. In Jonathan Pingle

addition, reduced summer auto-plant retooling this year may be holding claims down, Economist

since fewer temporary shutdowns would mean fewer layoffs in auto-intensive states, jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

while seasonal factors still expect some normal July retooling-related claims. In addition,

the FRB of Kansas City manufacturing composite edged down slightly in July but Alan Detmeister

remained solid, consistent with the overall optimistic signal from regional manufacturing Economist

surveys out to date for July. alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

Abigail WattAccording to Bloomberg, some Trump administration officials and allies have discussed

whether an external review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse could provide a legal basis abigail.watt@ubs.com

to remove Governor Barr, though the review's stated purpose is to assess shortcomings +1-212-882 6929

in Federal Reserve supervision and regulation (link here). Sen. Elizabeth Warren has

Jalen Nichols

criticized the review as potentially politically motivated, asked the Fed's inspector

general to investigate its launch and contractor selection, and reportedly questioned jalen.nichols@ubs.com

whether it could serve as a "pretext to illegally fire yet another Fed governor." +1-212-882 6905