U.S. Hardlines Retail Highlights from an Expert Call on 2Q’26 Weather Trends and 3Q’26 Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Hardlines Retail Highlights from an Expert Call on 2Q’26 Weather Trends and 3Q’26 Outlook

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

U.S. Hardlines Retail Equities

AmericasHighlights from an Expert Call on 2Q'26

Weather Trends and 3Q'26 Outlook Retailers, Broadline

Michael Lasser

Analyst

michael.lasser@ubs.com

Our take: 2Q weather trends were mixed across retail, and the outlook for 3Q +1-212-713 2440

suggests weather could remain a modest headwind for seasonal demand.

Mark Carden

We hosted a discussion with two weather experts who assess the impact of weather Analyst

patterns across consumer-facing industries. Their view is that weather was generally mark.carden@ubs.com

supportive of retail demand early in 2Q, particularly in May, but became less favorable as +1-212-713 3218

the quarter progressed. Cooler temperatures and increased precipitation in June, Jay Sole

followed by a more uneven July, weighed on several summer seasonal categories. Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

Looking ahead, the experts expect weather-related challenges to persist through 3Q. +1-212-713 3559

Warmer year-over-year temperatures during key fall selling periods could delay demand Peter Grom

for seasonal merchandise, particularly in softlines. At the same time, wetter conditions in Analyst

September and cooler temperatures across portions of the central U.S. in October may peter.grom@ubs.com

provide some offsetting support. Hurricane activity remains the most significant +1-212-713 3482

wildcard, with the potential to create meaningful variability across retail subsectors. Dennis Geiger, CFA

Key takeaways from the discussion: dennis.geiger@ubs.com

+1-212-713 9313

May was broadly favorable for retail demand. Temperatures were generally