Moody‘s Corp.: Guidance Could Prove Conservative...Again

Research evidence excerpt

Moody‘s Corp.: Guidance Could Prove Conservative...Again

ance growth in FY26 were increased to MSD from LSD driven by the

higher data center activity in PPIF and frequent banking issuers in FIG. Since

these issuers typically pay lower average yields on issuance due to their

pricing programs, the higher issuance outlook due to these market

participants does not materially increase FY26 revenue expectations. At the

same time, the company reduced expectations for issuance from insurance

and structured products (CLOs, CMBS) which are typically higher yield.

MCO expects issuance activity to slow through the summer and is

incorporating low single digit y/y revenue growth in the 3Q and flat

4Q revenue in FY26 guidance. This is a reduction from guidance for the

2H provided last quarter when management was expecting 2H revenue

growth for the MIS segment in the mid single digits.

FY26 issuance expectations are in line with our FY26 forecasts from our

annual issuance analysis.

Demand for MCO's private credit ratings continues to increase, driven in part

by credit stress in the market. Investors in private credit are increasingly

requesting 3rd party credit assessments on loans in the funds they are

invested in. MCO saw over 110 new first time private credit mandates in the

2Q. Both investors and issuers are interested in more transparency and

independent insight, apparent in the 40%+ y/y increase MCO reported in

private credit-related transactions.

We believe the private market will continue to be an important source of

funding going forward, but will require greater transparency, particularly as

funding is increasingly sourced from the wealth channel. See our deep dive

for more detail.

Moody's Corp. 22 July 2026 ab 3