CME Group Inc.: Are we in the (Perps) Clear?

Research evidence excerpt

CME Group Inc.: Are we in the (Perps) Clear?

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

CME Group Inc. Equities

AmericasAre we in the (Perps) Clear?

Diversified Financial

12-month rating Neutral

Strong momentum but perps narrative may still linger

CME outperformed on the 2Q beat and solid run rates in non-trading lines, such as 12m price target US$260.00

market data and income on margin balances, which drive our estimates higher. CME is

rolling out a variety of new initiatives (e.g, single stock futures, compute contracts)

Price (22 Jul 2026) US$249.24

which support the structural growth story, while the near-term trading environment

should remain supportive. Management did a solid job addressing concerns about RIC: CME.O BBG: CME US

competition from perpetual futures. While we echo management's sentiment

Trading data and key metrics

fundamentally, we worry that the overhang could remain for some time, as retail brokers

52-wk range US$326.46-218.58

and other intermediaries explore new product opportunities, likely creating further

negative headlines. As such, we prefer other names in the group. Market cap. US$89.4b

Shares o/s 359m (COM)

Perps likely not challenging market share; several new initiatives ahead Free float 94%

So far in the 3Q, trading activity is tracking up 2% y/y (-14% q/q), with continued Avg. daily volume ('000) 3,344

geopolitical uncertainty, energy volatility, and the upcoming Treasury roll expected Avg. daily value (m) US$861.4

to be supportive. Interest rates volumes are tracking down 13% y/y but should Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$27.2b

improve given the Treasury roll in September. Volumes in the equity index (+27% P/BV (12/26E) 3.3x

y/y), energy (+14% y/y), and commodities (+10% y/y) complexes are tracking up. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.1x